Stanislav Petrov saved the world from nuclear disaster 41 years ago today

During the height of the cold war, the actions of one Soviet military officer were all that stood between peace, and nuclear armageddon.

The date is the 26th of September, 1983, and lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov is at his post in a command centre near Moscow responsible for the Soviet network of early warning satellites.

In the early hours of the morning, an incoming report warns Petrov of an American nuclear missile strike. Petrov’s duty is to inform his superiors of this imminent attack, giving them time to launch a counter-strike of their own.

Petrov decided to sit tight. He reasoned that, if the United States were to launch a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union, they would surely make use of the thousands of missiles in their arsenal, rather than just the one that was showing up on the Soviet computers. Whilst no one could be sure, doubts about the accuracy of the satellite network had been raised previously, and Petrov knew that if he were to raise the alarm, there would be no going back.

In 1983, the US had over 20,000 Nuclear warheads at their disposable, and the Soviet Union – over 35,000. The destructive power of all-out nuclear war between the two superpowers (and their allies) would be devastating.

As the minutes went by, Petrov held strong in his decision to not inform his higher-ups. He believed, and hoped, that the missile detection was, in fact, an error. This was eventually confirmed, as there were still no reports of a nuclear strike long after the missile should have landed.

And so, Stanislav Petrov’s defiance of protocol and his quick thinking may have averted a nuclear holocaust. We can’t be certain if his superiors would have pressed the big red button after receiving Petrov’s report, but it’s at least plausible that the 3 billion humans who have been born since 1983 all owe their lives to one Soviet military officer.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Petrov’s actions have been revealed to the world, and he has since had a feature-length documentary made detailing the incident, called The Man Who Saved the World.

The world’s nuclear warhead stockpiles from 1945 to 2023 (Our World in Data)

The size of the world’s nuclear stockpile has since plummeted from its peak in 1986, but we are by no means safe. The wars in Ukraine and Israel have increased tensions between the world’s nuclear powers, reminding us that the need for diplomacy and cooperation remain sorely needed to avert lose-lose scenarios like nuclear war.

Read more: Toby Ord: Climate risk down, Nuclear risk up

As the existential risks we face evolve, and new ones emerge, we could all benefit from remembering the actions of one Soviet officer in 1983.

Stanislav Petrov passed away 7 years ago. Today, the 26th of September, is celebrated worldwide as Petrov Day.

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